Regardless of how long you’ve been playing at Kolkata Fatafat, you must have heard “5 aaj hot hai bhai” from one of the players. It looks like the hot numbers theory is rather logical: a number that has appeared a lot lately will appear for several further Bajis. Though it seems that everything is right, mathematics and life practice say otherwise. So, let’s try to prove the myth using 30 days’ data of the real game available from kolkataff.net.
What is a “Hot Number”
The hot numbers theory is based on the hot hand fallacy phenomenon, known in the field of sports. It works perfectly in the context of sports (if the athlete plays excellently, he is in the right psychological state), but it doesn’t work in the case of Kolkata Fatafat because there is no such thing as hot and cold number. Every Baji is an independent event and the result of the fifth Baji today has nothing to do with the same Baji tomorrow. Nevertheless, this is the way punters think over their cups of tea.
30 Day Data Analysis
To test the hypothesis of the fallacy, I gathered data of 30 days’ single-digit results of all Bajis. It gave me about 240 data points to analyse. Then, I created the following table that includes:
- the total number of hits for each digit from 0 to 9.
- the longest hot streak for each digit.
- the probability of a hot digit to hit in the next Baji.
- the comparison of the performance of a hot digit vs a cold digit in the next week.
The Story That Numbers Tell
All the digits from 0 to 9 were hit from 21 to 27 times within one month making a noise around the expected value of 24 hits. The probability of a number, which is marked as hot after 4 successful hits in a row in different Bajis, to appear in the next Baji equals 10 percent (and not 5 or 7 percent). This is the exact definition of statistical independence.
Why People Believe the Myth
The major reason for the existence of this myth for many years is the selectivity of the human memory. There are several reasons why people believe in this fallacy:
- people tend to remember hits and forget misses.
- the results shared on WhatsApp make the streaks look even better.
- the human mind easily finds patterns in randomness.
- it is easier to accept the loss to a hot number than to a cold digit.
The Cost of Misbelieving
The fastest way to lose money on Kolkata FF is chasing hot numbers. The minute a player notices that some number was hit twice in a row, he doubles his bets, thinking that this number is due to appear in the next Baji. Sometimes it happens, proving the myth. But much more often it doesn’t and losses are explained by an unlucky day (“aaj din kharaab tha”). This causes a gradual depletion of the budget.
Conclusion
Analysing the results of Baji for one month, we discovered another gambling myth for Kolkata Fatafat. Regardless of whatever happened yesterday, last week or last month, the probability of appearance of any digit in each particular Baji equals 10 percent. The chart on the website of kolkataff.net is a perfect tool to monitor the history of the game and develop betting skills. But if you use it to find hot numbers, then you pay your tuition to yourself.
